Town Ultra's League Prediction for the Rest of the Season

My predictions for the rest of the season:


Sat 30 Nov : Solihull Moors (A) find ground 1
Sat 7 Dec : Altrincham (H) 3
Tue 10 Dec : Hednesford Town (A) 0
Sat 14 Dec : Gloucester City (H) 3
Sat 21 Dec : Worcester City (A) 1
Thu 26 Dec : Guiseley AFC (H) 3
Sat 28 Dec : Vauxhall Motors (A) 3
Wed 1 Jan : Guiseley AFC (A) 1
Sat 4 Jan : AFC Telford United (H) 3
Sat 11 Jan : Stalybridge Celtic (H) 3
Sat 18 Jan : Leamington (A) 3
Sat 25 Jan : Bradford Park Avenue (H) 3
Sat 1 Feb : Colwyn Bay (A) 3
Sat 8 Feb : Hednesford Town (H) 1
Sat 15 Feb : Histon (A) 1
Sat 22 Feb : Boston United (H) 3
Sat 1 Mar : Brackley Town (A) 1
Sat 8 Mar : Solihull Moors (H) 3
Tue 11 Mar : Altrincham (A) 0
Sat 15 Mar : Bradford Park Ave (A) 1
Sat 22 Mar : Colwyn Bay (H) 3
Sat 29 Mar : Gainsborough Trinity (H) 3
Sun 6 Apr : Gloucester City (A) 3
Sat 12 Apr : Leamington (H) 3
Sat 19 Apr : North Ferriby United (A) 0
Mon 21 Apr : Barrow FC (H) 3
Sat 26 Apr : Stockport County (A) 1


56 points + 23 = 79 points . FC Halifax finished 5th with 75 last season so would mean playoffs (probably)...

16 W 8 D 3 L

56 points from 27 games

Thoughts? Realistic? Unrealistic?

We need to take max points from 15-18 games out of 27 to come. We can afford to drop points in 9-13/27
7 games depending on how many we win v draw.

So basically in every 3 games we need to win 2/3 on average and afford to lose 1 and average 2 points per game.

I think we can do this, not easy, but doable!

COME ON TOWN

 

TownUltra wrote:

Thoughts? Realistic? Unrealistic?
 

Totally unrealistic I'm afraid.

My optimism has been renewed of late and I still retain hope of a play off spot but seriously, only 3 defeats between now and the end of the season? You also have us winning well over half of our remaining games. I admire your enthusiasm but you've not been reading the script. The manager has a 35% win rate. 16 wins represents a 65% win rate between now and the end of the season. That would be one hell of an upturn in fortunes required. I'm not saying it's impossible but that stat alone should tell you it's highly improbable. Certainly not as 'doable' as you seem to think.

Of course I'd love to be totally wrong but I think a reality check is still needed on here.

In fact if I'm really kind and only take into account last season (Simon's best) and this season, the win percentage is still only 49%. Those predictions just look way too optimistic.

DK this season the league win percentage is 53% and I think we can say that we would expect the team to get better and this would improve further? Also arguably the strength of our squad should lead us to winning more games towards the end of the season as other squads tire.

Even if the win rate was 55% from now on we end up winning 15 W D 5 L 7 with 73 points. That could well be enough for 5th.

It's all there to play for. We can be the difference, we need to get behind the team at the home games we have 13 home games left in the league. Let's make the CNG a fortress!

DK when the Joker blew the bridges and set the nuke ticking in Gotham nobody thought that one man and a sidekick and a bird dressed as a cat would save the day, but look what happened. Clear your head, the Town bat light is pointing to the sky. Come to the rescue, believe. We can do this.

COME ON TOWN!

TownUltra wrote:DK this season the league win percentage is 53% and I think we can say that we would expect the team to get better and this would improve further?!

I know you can only beat what's in front of you etc but the last 4 wins against cannon fodder have probably skewed the win ratio somewhat. And it's still a big jump to 65%. You asked, I answered. We won't get anywhere near your original prediction barring a miracle or three. Even your revised prediction relies on us maintaining a win rate which as I've said has just been radically improved by beating bottom of the league stuff. By all means dream and hope but raising expectations to that level is asking for trouble.

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A 3pt deduction but no deduction for our goal difference!
We have played against 5 of the 8 teams currently above us but have only lost to one of them Brackley Town!
27 games still to play to challenge for a play-off spot!!!!

9 points behind top spot, imagine, just imagine if we can beat Hednesford, Solihull and Alty.......game on I say with no cup distractions, players returning from injury, couple of loan guys coming in.

trevdee wrote:9 points behind top spot, imagine, just imagine if we can beat Hednesford, Solihull and Alty.......

Imagine if we had registered all our players and had a sub goalie...

trevdee wrote: players returning from injury, couple of loan guys coming in.

Not sure that's a positive when the manager still doesn't have a clue what his best team is. Expect plenty more juggling.

I've said elsewhere I think we can still make the playoffs but all the evidence suggests it's unlikely. The problem is, a lot of damage has already been done. Catching up might not be impossible but catching up and staying there leaves very little room for error. Come the end of the season when all the points are tallied up, the slump will probably have cost us and that's assuming we don't have any more bad runs.

Big Lundy wrote:
We have played against 5 of the 8 teams currently above us but have only lost to one of them Brackley Town!

Conversely, who have we beaten above us? Telford away and Ferriby at home. Most of our results have come against teams below us. Half of our wins have been against teams in the bottom 3!!! I don't want to sound negative, I hope we can still get back in it but I just think people are allowing their heads to rule their hearts here. We've done well to stop the rot but it's been against teams at the bottom, one of whom we had a very lucky escape against at home. And amidst this "great" run you cannot dismiss the BPA results no matter what the selection problems were. If we go from now until the end of the season with a 55% win percentage then I will gladly eat a huge portion of humble pie but it's just common sense really based on what we've seen and what the historical evidence says.

Clearly there is still a mountain to climb and certain trends will have to stop if we really are going to grab a play off spot. Do we really have that much faith in the manager?

I got the hangover from hell today so I wont read all of what you have wrote DK (probably later) but I think until we know the outcome of the next 3 or 4 games im going to base my new found optimism on assumptions.

You also mention that most of our wins are against lower placed teams, which is true but I don't think there is a huge gap between the top teams and lower teams in terms of ability apart from the fact the top teams are in the habit of winning and scoring goals. Yesterday looking at the stats we could have quite easily been a couple down by half time and I have read enough game write ups over the last few months on various games in the league - Alty have scraped past lower opposition recently, so have Hednesford and so have North Ferriby. We will create openings against any team in the league, we just have to be optimistic that our strikers will convert!

Well I realise if we win our next game, excitement levels on here will reach rabid dog levels but I'm simply being realistic and pointing out the facts. Nothing wrong with a bit of optimism of course but seriously there's more chance of me landing a hot date with Lucy Verasamy than there is of us only losing 3 of our remaining 27 games.

The next three are as a tough as it gets. I've predicted 4 points from the next 3.

Remember DK we could lose up to 7 out of 27 and still get the playoffs- depending the win v draw ratio. We need to rack up some maximums. The good news is that maximums come from scoring goals and we have 14 in the last 5. Hardy 5 in 6, Worsfold 3 in 2 . Hall starting to notch...

DK I'd be interested to see your prediction table- give it a go it doesn't take long, copy and paste my fixtures and points and put your predictions against it.

COME ON TOWN

Also I want to win the WRCC, beating Guiseley in the final, maybe we can bribe the WRFA into playing the final at Wembley?

CUP DREAM LIVES ON

I think it's easy as football fans to look at league tables and go through the fixture list getting excited about the possibilities if this happens and that happens but if you try and remove your emotions and look at things logically I suspect our playing record over the next 27 games will probably look more like this:

P27 W 13 D 7 L 7

That's not being negative it's just taking all things into consideration like how we've done, how we've played and facts like the team has been unsettled all season long. To create the kind of stats we want means that we're going to have to do things we've never done before and despite the mini-revival my faith just hasn't been restored to that extent. However that could change over the next 6 games or so. Right now I think we still need to be taking things one game at a time.

Well yes and no re you can't look at each single game, as we have already 15 so you have to look at the difficulty of what is still to come.

Below are the 5th place teams' points tally over the last 5 years:

09-10 40 64pts
10-11 40 73
11-12 42 72
12-13 42 75

From your conservative / realistic totaliser DK we'd end on 69pts - not far off. So even with a conservative prediction it's going to be close.

It's all to play for! A lot of excitement to come.

Even if we don't have a good run over the next 3, which are arguably the toughest run of games to come, but if could get 6pts from those 3 we're on course!

COME ON TOWN

Oh don't get me wrong, I agree we shouldn't chuck in the towel as it's not completely unfeasable. And if we get in the playoffs I'll be the first one to hurdle the barrier and plant a smacker on Weaver Jr   

I also think that even if we do just miss out it earns everyone a reprieve and hopefully puts us in place for next season.

Dark Knight wrote:I think it's easy as football fans to look at league tables and go through the fixture list getting excited about the possibilities if this happens and that happens but if you try and remove your emotions and look at things logically I suspect our playing record over the next 27 games will probably look more like this:

P27 W 13 D 7 L 7

That's not being negative it's just taking all things into consideration like how we've done, how we've played and facts like the team has been unsettled all season long. To create the kind of stats we want means that we're going to have to do things we've never done before and despite the mini-revival my faith just hasn't been restored to that extent. However that could change over the next 6 games or so. Right now I think we still need to be taking things one game at a time.

Agreed but rather like golf you have to take advantage of a good run which is why I would view anything other than 3 points at Solihull as disappointing. We don't have a good recent record against them, they have done well at home and are above us in the table but the fact is we have ground to make up and no better time to do it with 4 wins behind us.

Harrogate expects:bom:      

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] - form guide says a good time to be playing Moors, also they got dumped out of the Trophy at home to Coalville which was a bit of a blow for them.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] - 34/1 worth a flutter?

Admire the optimism, and I'm feeling good at the moment (the Monday after a win always does that!). We are certainly not out of it, but its going to be very tough, and we will need to beat some of the 'big teams' along the way. Trouble is Hednesford, Brackley (don't they ever give goals away!), Ferriby, Altrincham look hard to displace from a play off place, so its a battle for 5th place really. I'll be buzzing all week, and a nervous wreck Saturday waiting for the Solihull result.

Oops, I forgot Boston and AFC Telford as well. Prayer beads out!!

paulstreet wrote:Oops, I forgot Boston and AFC Telford as well.  Prayer beads out!!

And Guiseley who have the same recent form as Town:affraid:   

I know, darn it. That Mark Bower seems to have the magic touch, after losing his first few games in charge. I suppose we can't discount Stockport altho' they lost Saturday and will have to perform miracles to get up there. One thing for sure, its gonna be tough reaching the play offs, we can't afford many slip ups.

There's definitely 9 or so good teams plus hard away games at mid and lower table teams, but when you're chasing not necessarily a bad thing as teams will take points off each other.

The big Q can we be consistent and start to rack up the points?

Solihull is a big game, and whatever the result you could argue that the Altrincham game is the biggest league game of the season.

It's going to be a sell out, people hanging out of the trees to see Killock v Reeves.

15 games unbeaten according to your prediction ? Football doesn't work like that.

15 games unbeaten? No i'm saying 15 wins out of 27 to hit the playoffs Martin.

Or do this:

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Hope the lads are pracising that move in training...makes goal scoring look easy.